FV Iowa analysis

Yea! Barack wins with huge turnout.

The story everyone is reporting this morning is the change-oriented candidates won Iowa. This is an important story. Go read it elsewhere.

The stat that shocked me as I sat listening to the returns on NPR (I don't have CNN and the CSPAN coverage was lacking - they even suggested that perhaps viewers needed to surf the other news networks to get the good exit poll data) was that the turnout in the Democratic caucuses had doubled from four years ago, from 124k in 2004 to 236k yesterday. And it was also roughly double the turnout in Republican caucuses of 114k. Here is a US News article citing these stats.

So the Dems got lots of independents and first-time caucus goers. And lots of those folks caucused for Obama.

Don't know if we can project from this onto other states, but if we could (and right now it's all we have to go on) it looks like a bad year for the Republicans.

I enjoyed the stat that the only polled demographic won by Sen. Clinton was women over 60. Ah, the coveted sensible pant suit demographic. This alone will not win her the nomination.

I haven't looked at the New Hampshire polls yet, but I'm going to go ahead and say that the "Live Free or Die" state goes for Obama and McCain. Obama riding the crest of the Iowa win, and those independent New England folks going for the true maverick of the Republican field. No way they go for a Southern governor named Huckabee. Just a hunch. I've been wrong before.

For now I think I will participate in the process the only way a Texan can at this crucial part of the primary season, by sending some cash to my candidate.